NSE: The Bears Haven

Yesterday could have been termed as Black Tuesday. The Chinese stock market went spiraling on rumors of some crackdown on illegal deals...whats so amazing was that majority of stock holders are locals; for those who don't know, the Chinese don't like foreigners owning major shares; so what they do is split the shares into Classes A, B , C...> So with all these categorizations and bureaucracies, a foreigner owns Class B shares and still its hard(the last time i tried to get a piece of the Chinese market i had to go through some company on LA.) Anyway about $10 billion vanished at the end of trading; which had a ripple effect on world markets and DOW plummeted by 416 points.

And Al Greenspan came to my mind with his recent comment that we are heading for a recession. I can sigh a relief because i don't own no US based stocks at the moment and they have never been my favorite...i don't see why Uncle Sam has to eat off my sweat considering there are millions on welfare who can work hard and yet they sit on their asses and do crap...yet there is a monthly check coming in...or those black 'mama's with 4 kids from 4 different baby daddy's who can work but just wait for those checks and have more fun with shopping at Tiffany's and drinking Hennessy and Jose something as one Poko Hunter calls it. Its so ridiculous that Uncle Sam has the guts to ask me to pay taxes on $400 i made on a stock deal and on top he had already taxed 32% .Bottomline; When they elect me as Governor, welfare will be based on what you can do to help ;"Work and get Paid"....> I can see the those white voters clapping for me...> "Join the Road Gang and you will get higher welfare and we dont have to hire more state workers" .Anyway that a story for another day.

Back to my dear NSE...its been an amazing 2 years at the NSE with outrageous stock prices and an index of 6000 considering that it was almost 3000 some time ago....> Yes outrageous stock prices which have hoodwinked so many common 'mwananchi'. They are even doing reviews in the UK Guardian. I would say that there have been some good information coming in from my favorite bloggers; Riba Capital, Bankele, and Cold Tusker. You people have done a great job and i would say that you do good research and after my so called study of the market i will once in a while make a reference to your postings...Good Work.

Kenyans seems seem to have fallen hook and crook with the NSE...> people made their money intially on Kengen which was oversubscribed to Eveready which was a bad idea(Merali is a speculator and i wouldn't buy shares in his companies). The ordinary Kenyan in the stock market has this idea that the stock market is on some Viagra and will keep on rising and rising..but what they forget is that the effects wear off after some time...was it 3 hours?
Anyway with the bullish run, everyone from 'mama mboga' to Wanjiru plunged most of their savings into the market with initial success but right now it seems people are losing or not making any gains.....> and they should know its time to get out...tell you mother, father, brother, sister e.t.c to watch out....for those who remember Asterix & Obelix, Chief Vitalstatistix says," The Sky may fall on our heads tommorow," but "Tommorrow never comes". But it might be for the NSE.

Still on the NSE, i would say that i very disappointed with th CMA and couple of brokers who have really misbehaved. Thanks i took off from Francis Thuo a long time ago....> no more brokers for me....i prefer having my siblings and parents deal with my accounts...and no worries of what will happen with these rogue traders...its ridiculous that East Africa Cables would quadruple their prices...same for CFC Bank jumping to Kshs.900 which actually not the first time...when CFC was floated on the NSE, it was issued at Kshs.5 and 3 months later its was at Kshs.600 and that was around 1995.. Then i think it dropped back to the Kshs.30's in some few months time.
Anyway i think there is too much 'roguish' activities going on in the market and this CDS crap is not worth it...how does a trader sell client stocks without authorization? No wonder it looks good on paper. Another issue thats bothering me is all these split issues we are having...did someone not tell them that its called diluting the value of the stock...i would rather have 3 buyers at Kshs.560 that have 100 buyers at Kshs.35. The more shares out there, the less the earnings .


NSE predictions for 2007.

The NSE stock index will be plummet to 4000 or an upper 3800's. Looking at the listed, companies listed the Return On Capital , Earnings Yield and P/E are not favorable in the long end. With the coming political season ipredict a break in the prices.
I can see Kengen at Kshs.15 and even a new share issue won't jumpstart the price....i can see Eveready at Kshs.7.50; Mumias at Kshs20.00....> Can u smell the bears coming in....> The dividends that are being issued remind me of the NSE in the 90's ...still remember those checks ICDC would send my dad...> 15cts per share which would cost you more on bank charges that the amount paid.

IPO Opinion.

Say HELL NO!!! to Kenya RE, Wananchi and all this stupid upstarts who just see listing as a means to make $$$$$$$$ forgetting that the money raised is to expand operations. I am even going to avoid Safaricom for now until am sure how the new CCK rules will affect their business model...and did they not just announce that there will be a hit in profit earnings?
Remember Newtons theory where anything that goes up can come down; diversify your risks and 2007 will be a good idea.

Personal Opinion.
I have always been a bear and trust me i will snatch these stocks once they dip and i don't care waiting for another 2-3 years to even out...have done that before and will be doing it once more. For those interested in predicting the Kenyan markets check, Betonstocks. You can make predictions on how a certain stock will perform.
Take your Money to Zimele, Old Mutual, Stanbic e.t.c these are unit trusts with the exception of Zimele which is more of an investment group/fund and they don't need lots of $$$ to start...minimum is Kshs.5000 without administrative fees(these suck) and returns have been good on the 2 products they are currently offering; Money Market and Balanced Portfolio...they stopped the Offshore fund.
The unit trusts are expensive and we are talking about a minimum of Kshs.500,000 ....> ChaseBank has some investment schemes that start with Kshs.100,000 but will update you once i get the information. Happy investing and keep the eyes wide open.

Politics 101

In 3 weeks time, the American voter will decide who dominates the Senate and Congress...Yes its what we call mid-term elections which will either make or break George Bush....> but the question is," Democrats or Republicans".
Personally i have never been comfortable with the Democrats since they never have a clear message or answer to Republicans...i mean only Dubya has given me tax-breaks... and this coming season i see Democrats screwing me up saying i earn too much.

Republicans? Apart from the tax-breaks and 100% for the Second amendment(ohh!!! yeah...i like hunting) there is nothing good happening. They have started competing with the Catholic priests on who can screw the most boys while advocating to uphold morals in America. Representative Mark Foley is an example of these filty men who exploit the 'faith' issues to get votes from dim-witted Episcopal followers or should i say faith based voting. I can't imagine this scandal erupted like 3 years but this 'faith based' republicans like "Holy" speaker from Illnois Denis Hastert kept this hidden...i don't think God likes men who screw young boys.
Representatibe Bob Ney agreed to resign after pleading guilty to corruption linked to one Jack Abramoff...the modern day Washington godfather. We have Tom Delay and many more Republicans who are spoiling the good name of the "Grand Old Party."

Beer!!! Beer!!! Thats what everybody is blaming their problems on. Foley, Ney and others(Mel Gibson() all claim beer lead to their actions...thats simply crap!!!! beer doesn't make you do some crazy s-hit like that. Yes you get F*** up but it doesn't make you screw little boys or curse at the Jews.
I can handle my alcohol and the only crazy thing that came to my head was to swim at the Berkeley pier...its not the beer but you who controls your fate. Talking about beer...no more Heineken...for those who want to avoid hangovers try Hefe Weizen...no hangovers...and tastes okay...only after Tusker.

So what happens after November 7? Most probably the Democrats will take the House and Senate......give Dubya a hard time....with all this Iraq and Afghanistan + North Korea shit....> No more tax breaks....> Better immigration policies, better health care...better foreign policy...blahhh!!!blah!!! But guess what i would never VOTE Democrat...> After all who's the chicken now?

Illiterate and Ignorant; The Kenyan I

First and foremost i would like to fire a salvo to my one and only friend OO screaming all the way from Montreal....Land of the Cowards; Home of the Traitors. Second to all the idiots and idlers who took to the streets demanding a new constitution yet they don't know what they specifically want.


Look at the idiots above...what part of the constitution do you think they understand? And for Pete's sake what part of the constitution do we want changed? As you ponder and wait to answer , how about thinking what Uhuru, Kamotho, Raila and LDP + KANU want? This one i can answer....they want sections that deal with power or objectives that will give them a political edge in the event of elections.
What did these idiots think when they tried to storm parliament...if they atleast were schooled, they would know that there are procedures to attend parliamentary sessions....and yet we have guts to complain that the police were harsh...stop inhaling too much mushrooms and use your brains for a change.

In his usual self of playing "God", Onyango Oloo in his mundane Kenya Democracy Project blog proceeds to list the functions of the Kenyan police which include maintaining law and order...
" Five civil society activists were arrested and teargas and water cannons used to disperse demonstrators who attempted to storm Parliament Buildings to protest" ...Man you wouldn't do this if even it was your father's house.
Hey what were they supposed to do when the so called peaceful protesters tried to storm parliament? Sit down with them and play Texas Hold 'em, or try smoke 'kiraiko' together? or for a change let them pet the horses and take a shower from the water canons?

"Judging by the number of policemen, horses and dogs, one would think Kenya is a police state or in a state of emergency," William Ruto, an MP and Kanu secretary-general, told Reuters news agency.{extract from BBC article}. What the hell is this devil trying to tell us? does he feel like and angel after 24 years of rape, murder by his bosses :(....Armageddon is surely here when the devil thinks he is christ.


What do the 'raia' above know about the katiba/ And who is this Katiba Watch..."Why are you blocking us? We just want to go to the public gallery and try to petition the House against what the MPs are trying to do on the constitution process." Ole Kina is surely and idiot ...how can 5000 people fit in the public gallery? Unless the parliamentary session was held in Nyayo stadium or Kamukunji grounds.
The problem is that Kenyans who failed in the free and fair political process want to cause chaos so that they can get better ways of grabbing power...for starters geriatriacs like Shikuku are no longer popular and thats why they cant make it back to parliament. Citizens should think and stop following blindly.

The Katiba...what do i want and what does Wanjiru, Onyango and Moraa want...for starters how about a constitution that protects them from corrupt leaders. How about a guillotine;or firing squad for anyone prosecuted on corruption charges.



Or what about universal health coverage for the 30 million Kenyans or free education for all educational levels...or better highways, pensions, improved income generation, tax and business incentives. Improved government buildings, policies e.t.c.
No!!!No!!! No idiot thought about that...all they did was to follow blindly like pigs what the so called Chemi Chemi ya uwongo and other retards tell them.

Back to the 'Katiba'. After Bomas where were the participants when they met for a consesus at Naivasha or Kilifi....The hyenas were out there babbling since they knew that they had everything to lose. So my dear Kenyans think before you act and don't follow these idiots as they lead us down the valley of death.

The Banana Republic of Kenya

Bishop Luigi Locati


First and foremost I would like to offer my condolences to the victims of the Marsabit massacre including the former Bishop of Isiolo Luigi Locati...Its absurd and indignant when a state is unable to protect its citizens against external and internal enemies.
The government's performance would be rated fair in the last 3 years but events occurring have convinced me that this is a banana republic and with sadness that I declare its time for a regime change. With all the resources that the Kenyan government possesses, I don't see why the intelligence community would have failed to detect that our stupid neighbors in Ethiopia were involved in subversive operations. The so called Oromo Liberation Front seems to enjoy support within some elements in the government and seems nobody cares for the people of Marsabit and Moyale.

Fatuma Baganjo and her child, Kabale Bagajo, at Marsabit District Hospital where both are undergoing treatment after the attack.

Kenya's welcoming policy to refugees and rebels will lead to its downfall. I mean we have hosted the SPLA, Museveni, Somali warlords, Ugandan rebels and Ethiopian rebels. We have also hosted every refugee in the book and what do they do? They convert our country into a launching pad for attacks...rivals have tried to kill each other all in the name of solving their differences. Was it not the other day that Garang was almost assassinated in Nairobi? Or was it not the Somali president who escaped an assassination attempt? Why should innocent Kenyans be caught in this external issues?

The reason is simple? We are getting too greedy for our own liking. With monetary promises we allow this morons to simply roam around the country? What does the immigration department have to say about this? Are our borders that porous? Why don't we use the army for security, shoot to kill robbers, close our borders, put all refugees in camps and close down the UNHCR office....the camps can operate from the Somali or Ethiopian border towns. Eastleigh should be the last place where Somalis convert into a mini-Mogadishu...its the high time we deported these "bastardos" to camps in the desert and prevent them from mixing with the sane population. I have come to dislike these people and if I was involved they would spend time in the camps till they die....who cares about their wars? If they cant solve their issues then why do we have to help them.

Bwana Kibaki its the high time you woke up from the slumber and set politics aside...I don't care whether it will cost you political support but Kenyans need to feel safe in their own motherland....I don't see why I should come to Nairobi and play tag with Wanugu when wherever I live',m I'm guaranteed 24 hr security. Do you know that I can wall to the shop at 2.00am and nobody bothers me? Do you know that I can drive at 3.00am after a few Tuskers with the wazees and I'm not afraid of being waylaid to my house. What is Bwana Michuki doing about this? Hes been office for sometime and all I see in the paper is killings, rapes, murders e.t.c....are turning into an Iraq act? Its time to wake up and smell the coffee or else you will be caught napping.



Its was really absurd to read that the Marsabit hospital only has one doctor; Dr. Mukuria M.D. How is a region of almost 20,000 supposed to be served by one doctor...is this not a hint to Charity " Heckler" Ngilu that there needs to be an emphasis on getting more qualified personnel to the area. I know they are nomadic and move around but unless we stop Anglo-Fleecing and try input more resources into healthcare and education, then I don't see us developing as a nation.

And last...a comment about the eviction from Mau Forest...Someone should tell them that this is a new regime and they should take care when they utter disgusting comments....Where were they when people were chased from Enosupukia and other water catchment areas? Or was it because these were not their tribespeople. If any land in Kenya was acquired illegally, then I propose that it should be revoked and those who sold these properties should pay back. Hongere Bwana Kimunya...these illiterates have nothing wise to say. And that's why I leave them with this poem from Rev. Martin Niemoller;

First they came for the Jews
and I did not speak out
because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for the Communists
and I did not speak out
because I was not a Communist.
Then they came for the trade unionists
and I did not speak out
because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for me
and there was no one left
to speak out for me.

Kenyan MP's- The Devil's Own

The first act passed by the Kenyan parliament was to pass a motion increasing their compensation package...yet in the last 3 years no important motion benefitting the Kenyan public has been passed...what a bunch of 'hyenas'.

Come December 2007 ....> The GOK( Republic of Kenya) will be dishing out approximately $ 5,000,000 to pay gratuity to our so called 'Honorables'...wow!!! what way of showing 'appreciation' for the 'hard work' they have done.
Before we go ahead...lets describe a Kenyan MP...A Kenyan MP is an greedy, gluttonous,uncouth, hypocritical human being that can only be a cross between the devil and Jack the Ripper.....ouch!!! was that a harsh description...I guess not, they deserve that.

Since December 2002, the Kenyan parliament seems to have turned into some profit making organization where the directors seems to be content in approving massive perks for themselves. As of February 24, 2005, it has been revealed that the so called 'honorable rats' have approved a massive perks when they leave office($ 5M)....they are calling it winding allowance. Furthermore they are asking for some extra $3M for constituency offices. Well this is the addition to the other benefits they have already given themselves, including a six-figure salary, sitting allowances, mileage allowances, a duty free car, a hefty pension scheme and generous medical cover. And to add insult to injury they have the besy gym in town yet majority look like pregnant tadpoles...so whats the use of the gym...some of these guys don't even know what a sauna or jacuzzi is yet they voted for it....> Are they not better off swimming in some river in Mogotio or sunning off on river rocks in El' Donyo Sabuk?

And yet this blabbermouths have the audicity to sing about corruption every day....what is this they are doing? Is that not a modern form of corruption or should i say piracy? How come we don't have an independent committee to decide on members payscales? I think this Majjid Cockar smoked some hemp....unless he interviewed the MP's about their compensation, i doubt any ordinary Wankiju, Achieng or Makau would give such recommendations.
They even want computers in their offices....plus internet i guess whereas 60% are computer illetrate...> what will the computers be used for unless for show.

Its time Kenyans stood up for themselves...these MP's need to save their own money for their retirement. Its no longer feasible to fund their retirment when majority of people are being retrenched in droves...they can't even afford 3 meals a day and yet some greedy 'hyena's are imbibing themselves with all the luxuries. There is even talk of blocking the budget if their demands are not met. What a load of crap!!!!! lets see them do that and we shall deal with them man to man."You can't pay idlers so much when the vast majority of workers are languishing in poverty due to poor salaries.", Francis Nganga(KNUT) said. I agree with the man.

Government deputy Chief Whip Mutinda Mutiso, Mr Jimmy Angwenyi (Kitutu Chache) Mr Nick Salat and and Mr Charles Keter (Belgut) were among those who supported the perks. What do you expect from such idiots who are part of the previous regime? They stole before and are trying to come up with stupid ways of looting from the public....and some of these idiots claim that the NARC government is witch hunting.

These people need to hear from the common man on real life realities otherwise they are growing too big for their boots. We need to place a check on then otherwise we seem to have no future.....i'm tired of hearing about poverty, illetracy..yet we are spending our monies on wrong priorities.

The World this Week: Bush & Europe

For the next 5 days, one George Dubya will be doing a 'Tour De Europe' on a fence-mending trip. During this time he will try convince sceptical Europeans that the New World + Old Europe should work together to promote democracy all over the world...Ha!!! what a sarcastic statement. Was this not the cause of the fragile relationship after the Iraq war? 65%of people interviewed in Europe believe that this is not the US role.
So where did all this tensions arise from? It seems Europe came to realize that it was playing fiddle to the US in world affairs and this had to change...Francois Mitterand can be said to be the instigator...well he passed on but what people forget is that Charles De Gaulle always dreamed of upsetting any US power in Europe..forget the Marshall plan, French alliances in the US civil war or the US intervention in World War II...Seems all the favors had been paid back.

Back to Brussels...seems the US today won a symbolic victory when NATo decided to send some military asistance to Iraq. Despite NATO being an European military Superhouse, it seems Old Europe are the major powerbrokers....despite new 26 members, i think the influence will remain with the Germans and French..sadly the new members will just play along second fiddle to the big boys. The problem is how will Russia feel when former Soviet satellite states are accepted into the Alliance? To further add insult to injury, they are even considering the Ukraine for future membership...does this trigger some future weapon race?

The Chinese:



Despite all seeming coy, seems Bush overstepped boundaries when he suggested that the EU should maintain its arms embargo on the Chinese...> This seem to have set off Chirac who apparently hates being told what to do...it seems Dubya is talking about partnerships based on his own terms...doesn't the man misuse the word freedom and liberty.Seems the EU will lift the arms embargo on China and this will lead to more tense US-Sino relations...all this because of a place called Taiwan. I consider Taiwan to be an independent state though i like the idea that the Chinese have resisted any American influence on their policies.
If the ban is not lifted, trust me that the Chinese will back the North Koreans all the way to Hades....> which will create a new arms race in Asia since the Japanese will feel threatened...and that will leave them no option but to start building strategic warfare piles. I feel that at the end of the 5 days, the only thing Dubya will have achieved will just be the agreement to train Iraqs by the NATO states & having a cup of coffee with Blair. He will have pissed Chirac and Shroeder off....Putin won't be impressed with the cozy relationship between Dubya and the Ukraine.

Iran , Syria & Pyongyang...> For starters i think Dubya and Condi talk to much without thinking...when they start talking about pre-emptive strikes , Axis of evil or Outposts of tyranny, they just aggravate the situation...We know they don't have enough people to cover Iraq...thats why they even sent recruitment letters last week to 80 year olds...they are just stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan...the last thing they want is to irk the Mad Mullahs in Tehran and Damascus. Any interference would result in major aggressions in Iraq.
The Iranians seem shady....why do they need nuclear reactors when sitting on some of the world's largest oil reserves....reminds me of a dairy farmer going to buy milk from the neighboring farm despite high production by his own herd....i think the Iranians are interested in nuclear weapons which is worrisome considering their hate of Israel and support for Hamas and other shady Palestinian groups.
The Syrians are just a shady lot...i don't understand why they need to be in Lebanon...atleast we know they used to support Hizbollah..unless they are planning some more strikes against Israel then i don't know what else to say. The need to get out as fast as they can...but i think its unfair to blame them for Hariri's death.


Fox Hunting:
Last but not least...last week was the last day the English were allowed to use dogs to hunt the foxes.

What i wonder is, despite hunting for 400 years how come we still have soo many foxes in the region? The last time i checked, the fox normally has a litter of 7. So i think this guys are kind of sadistic bastards...probably the just capture one fox and watch it fight with the dogs and after that head home. Interesting question though, The law states they can't hunt with a dog(male gender)...can they circumvement the law and use a bitch(female gender)?
Peace to all and have a nice week.

Education: A Look at Programmes of the Kenyan Socialists.

As i promised i have been going through the programme put forward by the Kenyan Socialists and while i agree with some issues, others are plainly wack. The advocating for free education in all levels is a welcome sign though i would like to know this will be funded. Compulsory education is another welcome factor and so is increase in spending in education.
But my main bone of contention lies with some ideas proposed that don't seem to be real. For one, eliminating private schools. The introduction of a curriculum committe is an attempt to brainwash the student ....Telling people what they should learn..> and not allowing them choices. Hell no!!! I don't want to be forced to read what the establishment thinks is right. I want to read what i think is appropriate for me any given day. I want to learn about Marx, Socrates, Plato, Karl Popper, Dickens e.t.c. I want to be well rounded in what i read and not get stuck into a pre-set sychronized motion.
Private schools are there to cater for those who have specific beliefs and ideologies. All my life i have been to schools where i belived that my beliefs could be accomodated. Or should i say i have been to Catholic schools? Thats where i have found what my beliefs are accomodated and there is no pressure on my part to change my values.
Others go to private schools to get an international experience...the AP experience e.t.c. What the socialist is trying to tell us is that this is not supposed to happen and we should all be equal...which would be a tremendous achievement to achive. Thats why i vote against this notion...I belive in my Catholic education experience and what i have learnt has made me who i am today.

The issue of language is a thorny issue. Having been to school with Tanzanians, i know what it means to be taught in Swahili for almost your entire life. Those i have met had a hard time coping up in Sciences , English e.t.c. In this world you need to learn a language that connects everybody and English is one of them..For you hard trekkers Mandarin might be an option since Russian is a killer(trust me...the only world i never forget in nyet). I think government has no say in the education process. They should not be allowed to dictate what is to be taught...we need separation of education and the State. 8-4-4 is still an excellent education system. What we need is to revisit the issue and make it workable. Changes are not neccesarily an inclination of better things to happen. So to Osewe and Onyangoo on education i give you guys 30%. You need to change your radical reforms.